The markets bounced back this week with the Nasdaq leading as it closed up 1.5% for its first higher close in four weeks. This comes after a 7.2% decline for it from its late January highs. The S&P also closed higher by 1% while the Russell 2000 gained 0.6% for the week. This coming Wednesday, February 25th, Nvidia will report earnings after the market close which will be a big catalyst for the markets, especially tech. There is still a big whale sitting in the March 20th $160 calls from December with over $200M worth of calls which they are currently up a little on. They've continued to hold through pullbacks and chop but we will see if they close it out or adjust the position ahead of earnings. This is the Nvidia flow from my UOA database:
The Nasdaq did not break through its primary downtrend this week and doesn't start any new weekly trends going into next week. Resistance from its primary downtrend (white) will be at about 23,070 on a continued bounce. If it breaks through this level it will start a new trend and we will have to wait and see how it closes to determine levels from this new trend. But, if it does break above it then I would watch the 23,570 area as the next key resistance level. While its prior uptrend (purple) remains as valid resistance, it's very far around 24,225 which would be new all time highs, but that is highly unlikely to be tested next week. If we do get another big sell-off then the next big support to watch will also be from this primary downtrend at about 21,775.
The S&P did not break through its primary trend either so it also remains in the same uptrend that it has been in since October. It almost got down to that support this week which was at 6,735-6,740 but it didn't quite make it as it put in a low of 6,775.50. That uptrend support will now be at about 6,755 on a pullback next week while resistance from the same primary trend will be just below 7,100. If we were to get that big rally and it breaks through 7,100 then its prior uptrend (purple) would come into play with resistance at 7,150.
The Russell 2000 did break through its primary downtrend this week and failed to close above it, which is technically a failed breakout which starts a new downtrend for it. However, it wasn't a weak finish and odds are it opens above its retest from the failed breakout (orange) which will be at about 2,645. Given that it closed at 2,663 it's more likely that it opens above it, though there is still risk of a gap below it with the tariff headlines. But if it does open above 2,645 then that level would be support on a pullback and vice versa if it opens below it. It's new primary downtrend (white) will be at about 2,666 which it could also potentially open above on Monday in which case that level would also be support, and if not it will be resistance. If we do get a pullback the next big support will be from its prior downtrend (blue) at 2,577. After that, its new primary downtrend (white) would come into play again at 2,510.
