Markets took another beating today led by small caps with the Russell 2000 losing 1.79% while the Nasdaq lost another 1.59% and the S&P lost 1.23%. The sell-off is accelerating after hours as Amazon reported mixed earnings results and is currently down about 10%. Tech is down an additional 1% in after hours trade while the S&P is down about 0.5%. Small caps on the other hand are unchanged as they are less sensitive to tech. The VIX closed up nearly 17% today and is now in backwardation as spot VIX settled above the front month contract. The VIX hit a high of $23.10 today, reaching its highest levels since late October 2025.
The Dollar continues to rise since Trump's Fed Chair nomination of Kevin Warsh, and it continues to hit metals. Silver fell another 16.5% today and is now down over 40% from its highs just last week. Gold fell another 3% and is now down almost 15% from its highs last week. Meanwhile Bitcoin continues to plummet, falling an additional 14% today. Bitcoin is now down 50% from its all time highs set last October.
Looking at tomorrow's levels now, nothing changed for the Nasdaq on the daily time frame. The key level I mentioned in yesterday's update was the 22,840 area which was from the new downtrend that it started yesterday. It gapped well below it this morning, which means it became resistance on a retest. It did quickly get that retest with a sharp bounce after the gap down, but it failed to break through that area as it put in a high of 22,841.28 and sold off again. Since it didn't break through any levels, no new trends get started for tomorrow.
For tomorrow, the next big level to watch will be at about 22,420 which is from its primary downtrend (white) again. This is about 0.5% away from where it closed today, and based on current after hours action (down about 1%) it looks like we'll get another gap below it and it will be resistance on a retest again. But a lot can change overnight and if it does manage to recover and open above it then that level becomes support. The next support is from the bottom of this primary downtrend which is around 21,750, but this is about 3.5% away and is unlikely to get tested. Resistance is at about 23,040 from its prior sideways range (yellow) and this is also over 2% away and it probably won't come into play either even if there is some sort of rally tomorrow.
The S&P gapped below its first support that I mentioned in yesterday's update which was at about 6,857. Since it gapped down to 6,837 this morning, the 6,857 level became resistance rather than support. This level also held on a retest early in the morning as the S&P put in a high of 6,857.85. It continued to break down below its primary downtrend and prior sideways trends. Now for tomorrow it starts a new downtrend.
Tomorrow the first key level to watch will be at about 6,792 which was the downtrend support that it closed below today (yellow). The S&P closed at 6,798 today but is down about 0.5% after hours and based on the current action it is likely to open below the 6,792 level tomorrow in which case that level will be resistance on a bounce attempt. If it does manage to reverse these losses overnight and open above 6,792, then that level becomes support. The next big support will be from its new downtrend (white) that it started today which will be at about 6,690 tomorrow. But, keep in mind that weekly support is at about 6,705 for this week. Resistances to watch other than the 6,792 level (assuming it opens below it tomorrow) will be at about 6,820 which is also from the new downtrend with more at about 6,853 from its prior downtrend (purple).
Similar to the Nasdaq and S&P today, the Russell 2000 also opened lower and got a quick retest and rejection at its prior resistance at 2,630 which was the level I mentioned in yesterday's update. It put in a high of 2,629.83 this morning and proceeded to sell off to new lows. It also broke below its primary downtrend support I mentioned at 2,578, and it closed just a hair below it at 2,577.64. Since it did close below it, it now starts a new downtrend going into tomorrow.
Now yesterday's downtrend (now yellow on the chart) will be support/resistance at about 2,564 tomorrow. Small caps are down a little after hours, but not much and it's more likely that the Russell opens above this 2,564 level tomorrow based on current after hours action - which again is very early. But, if it does open above that level then the 2,564 area becomes support. If that happens, then the next resistance level to watch on a bounce would be at 2,598 from the new downtrend that it started today. There would also be more resistance at about 2,632 from its prior downtrend again (yellow). On the other hand if it does gap down below the first key level of 2,564 then it becomes resistance. Even if it opens above it and breaks through it, the next support level from there will be at about 2,530 from the new downtrend that it started today (white).
