The markets were off to a weak start ahead of the new year with IWM once again leading the way lower as it closed down 0.61% with QQQ finishing down 0.48% while SPY held up the best as it finished down 0.36%. The VIX did pop back above $15 briefly before finishing back down at $14.20 for a gain of 4.4%. Precious metals also saw a big overnight reversal with Silver finishing down over 7% and Gold down over 4%.
In the last daily update I noted that IWM had closed below its last uptrend support and that it started a new daily downtrend. It did not get the gap up or break above $252 to clear through this new downtrend, and in fact it gapped down and got down near the new downtrend support which is at about $249. It didn't break through that downtrend, so for now the current trends remain the same. It was a weak finish and likely will remain in this downtrend tomorrow with support now around $248.25 and resistance just above $251.
For QQQ, on the daily it broke just below its uptrend support today but managed to close back above it. This is now a failed breakdown and does start a new daily uptrend for it. However, it wasn't a strong enough finish to be considered bullish. Tomorrow we would need to see a gap up above $621.75 which is support from the prior uptrend (retest support) that it broke below today. The new uptrend support is just below that at about $621.45, so at the very least it needs to gap up above that for buyers to signal that they're still in full control. It closed at $620.87 today so it wouldn't require a big gap up and it's very doable. But, if it fails to gap up above those levels, they become resistance. Now in QQQ's case, even if it were to open below those supports and close below them, the new trend that it starts would still be higher. So for now there's not much to be concerned about with it - unlike IWM which is in a downtrend.
Finally, for SPY it still looks the same for now. It remains in a wide daily uptrend with no new trends starting. If it does end up pulling back towards $679-$680 which is both weekly (see the weekend update) and this daily support then it would be a warning sign of a potential larger breakdown going into early 2026.
