While there has only been one trading day for 2026 so far, the weekly charts are beginning to show some warning signs as we got lower weekly closes for IWM, QQQ and SPY this week. IWM and SPY closed lower by just over 1% while QQQ was the biggest loser with a 1.7% weekly decline. Despite the pullback, volatility remained pretty suppressed with the VIX finishing at $14.51.
In the last weekly update I noted that IWM would officially start a new weekly downtrend if it closed below $254.25 which it did. It closed well below that uptrend support and finished at $248.78. It did have a strong bounce on Friday, but it wasn't enough to undo the technical damage on the weekly chart. Now there will be new weekly resistance right around the $252 level next week from this new downtrend while support from it will be around $242.
For QQQ, the same trends remain intact as it hasn't broken through any of the support or resistance levels mentioned in the previous update. Last week I noted that the weekly support to watch on a pullback would be just above $610. That is exactly where it pulled back to ($610.25 low) during Friday's sharp reversal. It did not break through it or through the prior uptrend resistances, so all of those remain the same for now. The close was really weak and going into next week it would need to gap above and hold $615 for it to remain in the current uptrend (white channel). It can still break and close above it even if it doesn't gap over it, but an open below $615 means that level will be resistance on a bounce attempt. It also got rejected at its monthly downtrend resistance on Friday (check the monthly update for charts and levels on that).
SPY also played out almost perfectly as we got the pullback just off that weekly uptrend support around $679.25. It put in a low of $679.82 before it managed to bounce back and finish positive on Friday. Because that weekly uptrend support did not break, no new trends on a weekly time frame will be started. Support from this same uptrend (white channel), which remains valid, will be just above $684 for next week. With SPY closing at $683.17 on Friday, it will also need to gap up on Monday to open above this support. Similar to QQQ, if it opens below that $684 area then it will be resistance. And just like with QQQ, it could still reclaim support even if it does open below it. We'll have to wait and see what happens. But, a close below $684 next week would not be good as it would still start a new slight uptrend (pretty much sideways) but that new range would be pretty wide and would signal a larger pullback.
