The markets have been stalling over the past few months and the S&P posted its largest one month loss since the 2025 tariff sell-off. It wasn't a big loss, but it did finish down by 0.87% for the month. The Nasdaq was the biggest loser as it fell 3.4% in February while the Russell 2000 actually posted a gain of 0.7%. The Fed will be in focus again this month as they will hold their next interest rate decision on March 18th. Currently there is about a 94% chance that there will be no change in rates, but their commentary will be market moving especially after the last few inflation readings have come in hotter than expected.
There was some technical damage done last month as the Nasdaq closed below its prior monthly uptrend support (purple). This now starts a new sideways monthly range (white) for it with support at about 21,925 for it. This is about another 3.25% away from Friday's close of 22,668. I may be tempted at buying the dip down there if it's tested, depending on how shorter time frames look as weekly supports are even further away (see the weekly update). The first resistance on a bounce will be from its prior monthly uptrend (purple) which will be at about 23,950. Its new primary trend (white) will be just above that at about 24,000.
The S&P technically put in a failed breakdown last month as it broke below its prior uptrend and rallied back to reclaim that support. However, it was not a strong enough finish and it also made a lower high and lower low below January's high and low, which now starts a new downtrend for it. It would need to gap up tomorrow above the 6,925-6,930 area to open above the prior uptrend (blue) from the failed breakdown. Since it closes at 6,978 on Friday, it's an unlikely scenario. Odds are it opens below this retest in which case the 6,925-6,930 area would become resistance on a bounce. If it does break through that area later in the month, the next resistance to watch would be from its new downtrend (white) which will be at about 6,980-6,985. On a continued pullback, the next support to watch will also be from this new downtrend which will at about 6,760-6,765.
The Russell 2000 continues to look the best as it remains firmly in its monthly uptrends even though it did have that failed breakout in January. Last month was an inside month and it didn't break trough its primary uptrend either way, so nothing changes for it heading into March. The first monthly support from its primary uptrend (white) will now be at 2,550-2,555 on a continued pullback. After that, its prior uptrend (purple) will also be support at about 2,520. The first resistance to watch will also be from its prior uptrend at about 2,810 followed by its primary uptrend (white) at about 2,855.
