Last night after the market closed, President Trump posted on Truth Social that he is pausing "Project Freedom", the plan to guide ships out of the Strait of Hormuz, as peace talks with Iran were progressing. Axios later reported that Iran and the U.S. were close to a deal to end the conflict. This news sent futures higher overnight and oil lower. Oil sold off nearly 14% at the lows and is now down about 6% for the day. The markets finished at their highs of day with tech leading as the Nasdaq closed up about 2% while the S&P and Russell 2000 both gained about 1.45%. However, the VIX finished also finished at the highs of day. It was a flat finish for it at $17.39, but it was well off of the low of day at $16.18.
With the big gap up this morning the Nasdaq did open just above yesterday's primary uptrend support and also broke just a hair below it. Since it did finish well above it at highs, it puts in a failed breakdown which starts a new uptrend for it going into tomorrow. The first support to watch tomorrow will be from the retest of today's failed breakdown (teal) at about 25,780 with its new primary uptrend (white) being the next support at about 25,740. The Nasdaq finished at 25,838 today - above both of these levels. However, if it gaps down tomorrow below those supports, they would then become resistances. Assuming no gap below them, they'll act as supports on a pullback and the next resistances will be from the same two ranges at about 26,325 (white) and 26,375 (teal).
If the Nasdaq gaps or breaks below the first two supports at 25,780 (teal) and 25,740 (white), then the next support to watch on a pullback would be at 25,000 from its prior sideways range (orange). There would also be support at about 24,980 from its prior uptrend (purple) and then 24,965 from its next sideways range (yellow). So there would be three support levels to watch between about 24,965-25,000 if there's a larger pullback tomorrow.
The S&P gapped above its first resistance level I mentioned in yesterday's update which was at 7,290-7,295. It opened at 7,294 .14 this morning, just a hair above that level, so it became support rather than resistance. It also broke and closed above its primary uptrend resistance at 7,335 which starts a new uptrend for it going into tomorrow.
Its new primary uptrend (white) will be the only daily resistance for it and that will be at 7,390-7,395 tomorrow. Its first support level on a pullback will be from its prior uptrend (blue) at about 7,355. If it were to gap down below this level tomorrow (closed at 7,365 today) then the 7,355 area would become resistance. After that, its next uptrend (yellow) which it gapped above today, will be the next support at 7,305-7,310. If there's a larger sell-off the last support likely to be in play would be from its new primary uptrend again (bottom of the range) at 7,245-7,250.
The Russell 2000 didn't break through its primary uptrend with today's rally as that resistance was at 2,900-2,905 for today and it didn't quite make it there with a high of 2,888.62. So since it didn't break through this trend, it doesn't start any new trends for tomorrow.
This primary uptrend (white) will again be the only resistance overhead which will be at about 2,920-2,925 tomorrow. On a pullback, this same uptrend will be the first support at 2,838-2,840. If that doesn't hold and there's a big sell-off, the next support would be at about 2,747-2,748 from its prior downtrend (purple).
