This morning PCE came in a little hotter than expected, up 0.2% month-over-month vs the estimate of +0.1% while year-over-year was in-line at +3.3%. Futures did fall a bit on it before the open but the dip was mostly bought and markets finished pretty flat for the day. The Nasdaq closed down 0.08% while the S&P closed down 0.02% and the Russell 2000 finished down 0.14%. Yields also ticked up slightly on the hotter than expected PCE report with the 10 year hitting a high of 4.688% before also finishing flat at 4.66%. The VIX continued to drift lower, falling 1.55% to settle at $15.21.
Nvidia reported earnings after the close which was a strong beat on the top and bottom lines as expected. They also guided higher saying they expect to grow revenue by approximately 70% in fiscal 2028 which is a "supply-constrained outlook", implying room for further upside if a more favorable scenario. The stock initially moved lower after its report, but reversed on its guide and is currently up about 4.5% to $219 which is carrying the markets higher in after hours. There were also strong reports from OKTA, CRM, and CRWD which are also benefitting tech in the after hours session.
The Nasdaq broke just above its primary downtrend that it started today at the 26,170 area as it hit a high of 26,189.81. It did close back below that downtrend giving it a failed breakout which starts another daily downtrend for it. For tomorrow the first key level to watch will be at its new primary downtrend (white) at about 26,150-26,160 which is just above today's close of 26,130. Right now in the after hours session tech is rallying on all of the earnings reports that came in with QQQ up about $5. So assuming this holds by tomorrow, the Nasdaq will gap well above its primary downtrend in which case the 26,150-26,160 area would become support on a pullback. The only other resistance to watch for now on a rally tomorrow would be from its prior uptrend (purple) around 26,425.
If this current after hours action were to get faded by the open tomorrow and the Nasdaq fails to gap above its primary downtrend at 26,150-26,160 then that area would act as resistance. The next support to watch on a pullback would be from today's failed breakout (green) at about 26,110. After that the next daily support would be from its next downtrend (yellow) around 25,965 and the last potential support in play would be from its primary downtrend (white - bottom of the range) right around 25,800.
The S&P closed within its primary sideways range today so it doesn't start any new trends for tomorrow. The next resistance level to watch will be from its prior downtrend (yellow) at 7,695. If it breaks or gaps above it, its next resistance will be from the primary downtrend (white) at 7,740-7,742 with the last resistance being at about 7,750 from its prior downtrend again (yellow - top of the range).
If we do get a reversal of the after hours action and get a pullback tomorrow, the only daily support that likely comes into play will be from its primary sideways range (white) at 7,635-7,637.
The Russell 2000 also remained within its primary uptrend today so it doesn't start any new trends for tomorrow. Its also not effected as much from all of the tech earnings and it's not up much in the after hours session. For tomorrow the only resistance level that will be in play on a rally attempt will be from its prior uptrend (orange) at 3,039-3,040.
On a pullback, the first support to watch will again be from its primary uptrend (white) at 2,989-2,990. If it doesn't hold, the last daily support to watch will be at its prior downtrend (blue) at about 2,975.


