Treasury yields jumped again today with the 10 year yield hitting a high of 5.225% as oil jumped nearly 3% in a volatile session on reports of the U.S. and Iran exploring a deal to end the war. While oil did pull back on this news, yields barely moved down before hitting new highs for the session. Markets however did recover significantly on the potential peace deal news with all of the indexes finishing flat, but near the highs of the day. The Nasdaq finished up 0.01% while the S&P and Russell 2000 finished down 0.02% and 0.11%, respectively. The VIX did finish higher by about 3.25% at $15.67 but was well off of the high of day at $16.57.
The Nasdaq remained well within its big primary daily uptrend so it doesn't start any new trends for tomorrow. For now the only daily resistance that potentially comes into play on a rally tomorrow would be from its primary uptrend (white) around 27,475 which is about 2% away. If we were to get a big rally this is the level to watch.
If there's another pullback, its prior downtrend (blue) will continue to be the first support level to watch around 25,675. After that, it will have more support from its next downtrend (orange) at 26,325-26,350 and finally its primary uptrend (white - bottom of the range) would be the last daily support to watch at 26,225-26,250 if we get another big sell-off. It's also likely that it continues to chop within this big primary uptrend for the time being.
The S&P gapped below its previous primary uptrend that was started yesterday, and it closed below it which starts a new sideways range for it. The first resistance on another rally attempt tomorrow will be at its prior uptrend (yellow) which is around where the rally stalled at today. For tomorrow that resistance will be at 7,729-7,730. If it breaks through it this time, the next uptrend (orange) will be the next resistance to watch at 7,766-7,767. After that, its new primary range (white) will be resistance at 7,791-7,792 and the last resistance (green) will be just above that at 7,797-7,798.
If there's another pullback, the first support to watch will be from its new primary range (white) at about 7,665. If it breaks through it, its next uptrend (orange) will be support at about 7,650. If this doesn't hold, and there's a larger sell-off, the last daily support that likely comes into play tomorrow would be from its prior sideways range (purple) at 7,590.
The Russell 2000 remains within its big primary daily downtrend so it doesn't start any new ranges again. This primary downtrend (white) will be the only resistance to watch at 2,916-2,917 tomorrow if there is a big rally. However this is nearly 3% away from today's close of 2,835 so it's unlikely to actually test it.
On another pullback, the first support will be from its prior downtrend again (purple) at about 2,815. It did break through this downtrend today, but it hasn't invalidated the trend yet. After that, the same range (bottom of the range) will be the next support at about 2,760. Lastly, its primary downtrend (white - bottom of the range) will be support at about 2,735. This is also pretty far away so it's likely that the Russell just continues to trade within this primary downtrend for now.
