Markets were higher across the board today with tech leading once again as the Nasdaq closed up 0.88% and hit its highest levels since early November 2025. It's now less than 1% away from its all time highs set on October 29th, 2025, as the rotation back into tech has continued. The S&P reached new all time highs again and finished with a gain of 0.41%. Small caps lagged again today and were negative for most of the morning, but they rallied back to close near the highs of day and the Russell 2000 also posted a gain of 0.26%. I also took a long position in IWM calls this morning near the lows as I see today as the end of the recent pullback in small caps after a 3% decline from its highs last week. I posted on X earlier that the Russell was coming up on its weekly support after last week's failed breakout (see the weekly update).
Tomorrow we have a Fed rate decision at 2:00 PM Eastern followed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference at 2:30 PM Eastern. Currently the markets are expecting there to be no change in interest rates for tomorrow's meeting, with about a 97% chance of that outcome. However, all eyes will be on Powell's commentary, especially after he finally spoke out against President Trump after the recent criminal investigation that was opened against Powell.
Looking at the technicals now, the Nasdaq gapped up this morning to 25,852, which was above the retest resistance of yesterday's failed breakout just below 25,800 that I mentioned in yesterday's update. Since it gapped above it, that level became support and it quickly retested it in the morning and held it - putting in a low of 25,791.75 which was right at that retest level. It also broke and closed above the 25,885 level from the new uptrend that it started. Since it closed above it, it now starts another uptrend going into tomorrow.
Tomorrow there will be a lot of levels to watch, starting with the 25,975 level. This is going to be support/resistance from both yesterday's uptrend that was started from the failed breakout as well as today's new uptrend that it started. Since the Nasdaq closed at 25,939 today, it will need to gap up again tomorrow for that 25,975 level to be support. It's not far and won't require much of a gap up, but if it fails to open above it tomorrow then that area will be resistance. The next support level to watch will be at 25,830 (blue) if it does open/break below 25,975 and pulls back. After that, the next support would be pretty far around 25,430 (orange) which is unlikely to be tested unless there's a big selloff due to the Fed. Resistance will be at about 26,025 (purple) on the daily and this is also going to be monthly resistance. 
The S&P broke above its sole daily sideways trend at 6,980-6,985 that I mentioned in yesterday's update. It also broke through its prior weekly uptrend resistance mentioned yesterday. It did fail to close above the 6,980-6,985 level today, so technically it's a failed breakout on the daily. But, it wasn't a weak finish and it also put in a slightly higher high which starts another large range which is a slight uptrend - but mostly sideways again. Since it wasn't a weak finish it could very easily break through this new trend or even potentially gap over it. But for now, the resistances to watch will be at about 6,981 from the prior sideways trend (purple) and retest of the failed breakout. After that, the 6,989 level would be the next resistance from the new trend (white) that it started today. It closed at 6,978.60 so it's very possible that it gaps above it or breaks through it even if it opens lower tomorrow. Support on the other hand is still very far away in these big ranges just below 6,800. I don't really think this area gets tested anytime soon without a catalyst, so I think it's much more likely that it breaks through to the upside again and starts more uptrends that will likely be more narrow.
Lastly for the Russell, as I said earlier I took a long position in IWM calls today when RUT was trading around 2,657 this morning which was near the lows of 2,650 today. It did rally back and close just off the highs of day and it did break through its daily downtrend resistance at about 2,667-2,668 that I mentioned in yesterday's update. But, it closed a hair below it at 2,666.69. While this does technically mean it's a failed breakout that starts a new downtrend, it was a very strong finish just like the S&P and it is even more likely to open above its downtrend resistances tomorrow due to the angle of the downtrends and where those levels will be tomorrow. So for tomorrow, yesterday's downtrend (yellow) and the new downtrend it started today (white) will both be at about 2,645-2,646. Since it closed at 2,666 today it's likely that it gaps above these downtrends which will then act as support if there is a pullback and retest. In the event that it does gap below 2,645 then those levels will still be resistance.
Now the next trend will depend on how low it gets tomorrow and where it closes as well. So I'm making some assumptions for now, but the next resistance area that I would look at will be at about 2,690. This would be dependent upon the Russell not breaking below the 2,643 area tomorrow.
