Oil rallied about 8% today at its highs on reports that talks between Iran and the U.S. were beginning to fall apart again. President Trump did make comments during the day saying that talks were still ongoing and progress was being made, but oil held most of its gains with it currently still up 5.5%. Yields also rose this morning with the 10 year climbing back over 4.5%, though it did fade to finish flat. Small caps lagged again, mostly due to oil, and the Russell 2000 closed down 0.47%. On the other hand the Nasdaq and S&P both finished higher by 0.42% and 0.26%, respectively. They both also reached new all time highs again. Despite the move higher, the VIX was elevated all day and it closed up nearly 5% at $16.05.
The Nasdaq did open above its primary uptrend support and held it on the early retest in the morning. This was the first support I talked about in my previous daily update at about 26,915 to watch. It got down to a low of 26,913.12 and continued its rally from there. It did not break through that support, so it doesn't start any new daily trends.
For tomorrow this same primary uptrend (white) will be the first level to watch at about 27,070 which is just under today's close of 27,086. If the Nasdaq opens above the 27,070 level tomorrow then it will remain as support and the next resistance to watch will be from its prior uptrend (blue) at about 27,365. After that, the last daily resistance will be from its primary uptrend again (top of the range) at about 27,420.
If the Nasdaq fails to open above its primary uptrend (white) at 27,070 tomorrow then that level will act as resistance on a rally attempt if we get a gap down. Or if it does open above it, but breaks through it, then the next support to watch will be from its prior downtrend (orange) at about 26,620. And if it breaks/gaps below the primary uptrend then it will start a new trend going into Wednesday's session, but we'll have to wait and see how it closes first.
The S&P opened and closed below its last primary uptrend support, but it still starts a new primary uptrend (white) for tomorrow which may be difficult to see on my chart as it hasn't invalidated any of its prior trends yet so there's a lot going on here. But, its primary uptrend (white) and its prior uptrend (red) will both be support tomorrow at about 7,594 which will be the first level to watch. The S&P closed right around 7,600 today so as long as it doesn't gap below 7,594 tomorrow, that level will act as support. From there the next resistance levels to watch on a rally will be at 7,632 (orange), 7,646 (green), 7,654 (yellow) and then its primary uptrend (white) will be at about 7,661. If it breaks through its primary uptrend resistance, it will have several more between 7,667-7,675 (blue, teal, and purple), and it will also start a new trend going into Wednesday but we'll need to see how it closes to determine the direction of that new trend.
If the S&P fails to open above the first supports at 7,594 (white and red), then that level becomes resistance on a rally attempt. On a pullback, the next support level to watch would be at 7,548 (orange) and the last support in play for tomorrow would be at 7,841 (red - bottom of the range).
The Russell 2000 failed to open above its last primary uptrend support this morning. It did break back above it, but closed just below it today which starts a new daily downtrend for it. I bought IWM puts today and held them overnight as it did close below support to start that new downtrend.
For tomorrow, the first resistance to watch will be from its new primary downtrend (white) at about 2,912. It closed at 2,905 today and ideally needs to avoid a gap above 2,912 tomorrow to remain bearish. If it gaps above it, that 2,912 level becomes support and the only resistance level to watch would then be at about 2,919 from its prior uptrend (orange).
If the Russell does open below 2,912 then its primary downtrend (white) will act as resistance on a rally attempt and the only support to watch for tomorrow will also be from its primary downtrend (bottom of the range) at about 2,867.
