Over the weekend cooler heads prevailed between the U.S. and Iran and oil fell over 8% today on the news of potential talks being on the table again. Yields also pulled back on it and the markets gapped up this morning but the gains quickly faded. At the highs of the day, the Nasdaq was up 1.1%. It ended up closing lower by 0.18%. The Russell 2000 was the leader today as the pullback in oil and yields benefit it the most, and it finished higher by 0.62%, although it was also well off of the highs of day. The S&P finished flat on the day, up just 0.02%, while the VIX closed up 0.48% after being down almost 6%.
Today the Nasdaq finally broke through its big daily range that it had been trading in since early-June. It broke to the downside but did close back over it to give it a failed breakdown, however it was not a strong finish. It also made a lower low, so it starts a new downtrend. This new downtrend will be an added level of support for now, but if it continues to break down it will start more downtrends.
The first level of support to watch will be on a retest of today's failed breakdown (purple) at 24,810-24,820. If that doesn't hold, the last support to watch will be from its new primary downtrend (white) at 24,750-24,775. Resistance will be from the top of this range, however it won't come into play as it will be around 26,500.
The S&P once again got very close to its primary daily uptrend support today, but it didn't break through, so it doesn't start any new trends again. Its primary uptrend (white) will continue to be the first support to watch at about 7,372-7,373 tomorrow. If it breaks through, its next support will be from its prior downtrend (yellow) at about 7,230. This will likely be the only other potential support in play tomorrow, but there will be more at 7,150-7,155 from its prior sideways range (purple) in the event of a big sell-off. The only resistance in play will be from the top of its primary uptrend (white) at about 7,685. But this is almost 4% away and is extremely unlikely to actually be tested.
The Russell 2000 had a failed breakout above its prior daily downtrend today, starting a new primary downtrend for tomorrow. The first resistance to watch on another rally attempt will be on a retest of today's failed breakout (red) at 2,963. After that it will have more resistance from its new primary downtrend (white) at 2,968 with more just above that from its next downtrend (blue) at 2,970. If it can break through all of these, the last two resistances will be from its prior uptrends (green and orange) at 2,980 and 2,988.
On another pullback, the first support to watch will be at 2,925 from its prior downtrend (blue). After that, its primary downtrend (white) will be the next support at 2,913. If that doesn't hold, its next downtrend (red) will be support just under that at about 2,909. If this doesn't hold either, the last support likely to come into play will be around 2,860 from its prior downtrend (yellow).
