The markets pushed higher once again last week with the Nasdaq and S&P finishing at highs and posting weekly gains of 1.5% and 0.5%, respectively. The Russell 2000 also posted a weekly gain of 0.4%, but finished off of its highs for the week. After a massive rally over the prior few weeks, stocks did consolidate a bit which is normal. As the VIX also comes back down, daily market moves will also become smaller.
This week there will be a lot to watch for as the next Fed rate decision will be announced on Wednesday, April 29th, at 2:00 PM EST followed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference at 2:30. Powell's term as Fed Chair ends on May 15th so this will likely be his last presser as Fed Chair. As far as the actual decision goes, there is currently almost a 100% chance that there will be no change in rates. Big tech earnings will also be a major catalyst this week as Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft will all be reporting on Wednesday after the market closes followed by Apple's report on Thursday after the market closes. These should provide a large move for markets, especially for the tech heavy Nasdaq.
From a technical perspective not much changed last week. The Nasdaq didn't break through its primary weekly uptrend so it doesn't start new ranges for this week. The problem here is that it will almost certainly open below its primary uptrend support tomorrow which will be at about 25,225. This is about 1.6% away from Friday's close and we're unlikely to get that big of a gap up tomorrow to start the week. Assuming we don't get that big gap up tomorrow, the 25,225 area will become resistance on a rally attempt and the only support to watch on a pullback will be at about 24,400 from its prior uptrend (orange). It's very likely that it will end up starting a new primary uptrend at the end of the week but we'll have to wait to see how it finishes in order to determine if it ends up being a failed breakdown or not. It is possible that it breaks and closes above the 25,225 area even if it fails to gap above it tomorrow.
In last weekend's update I noted that the S&P was very likely to pullback to test its primary uptrend support at 7,045-7,050 which was just over 1% away. It pulled back to this level perfectly and held that support as it put in a low of 7,046.55 before rallying back. Since it didn't break through that support, it also does not start any new trends going into this week. However, just like with the Nasdaq it is very unlikely that it opens above this primary uptrend (white) tomorrow as that level will be at about 7,305 which is about 2% away.
Since it's extremely unlikely that we get a 2% gap up tomorrow to start the week, it's likely that the 7,305 level will act as resistance on a rally attempt this week. The next level to watch will be from its prior uptrend (blue) at about 7,190. This is also above Friday's close of 7,165. So it's also possible that this 7,190 level will be resistance as well if the S&P fails to gap above it tomorrow. 7,190 is only about 0.35% away though, so it's possible it does gap over this level in which case it would be support. If it fails to get that gap up too, then the next support to watch would be from its prior downtrend (purple) at about 6,770 which is pretty far away. Similar to the Nasdaq, it's likely there is a new primary trend started at the end of the week.
The Russell 2000 didn't break through its primary uptrend either last week, so just like the Nasdaq and S&P it doesn't start any new trends for this week. And just like the other indexes, it won't get a big enough gap up tomorrow to open above its primary uptrend (white) which will be at about 2,838 and is 1.8% away from Friday's close of 2,787.
So assuming we don't see a big gap above 2,838 tomorrow, this level will be resistance on a rally attempt. There will also be more resistance from its prior uptrend (yellow) at about 2,850. Its only support is very far away around 2,500 which is not going to be tested either. So similar to the Nasdaq and S&P it will likely just start a new primary trend at the end of the week which will provide a new support going forward.
